Ukraine and US Fail to Finalize Rare Earth Minerals Agreement
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump in Washington to sign an agreement granting the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits. However, the meeting took an unexpected turn, ending in a heated exchange between Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. Following Zelensky’s early departure, the White House announced that no agreement had been signed.
Zelensky had earlier conveyed hope that this “initial” agreement might lead to enhanced collaboration. Yet, he acknowledged that Ukraine still hadn’t obtained any security assurances from the US—a crucial point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to “recover their funds” from the aid given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that Europe should assume the main role in ensuring Kyiv’s security.
Details of the Agreement Terms
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal of Ukraine declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft version of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. The arrangement proposed the establishment of an “investment fund” aimed at aiding Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.
Shmyhal noted that the fund would be jointly managed by both countries on an “equal footing.” As per the agreement, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its future income from state-controlled mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. These funds would then be put toward projects focused on improving Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic development.
The US, meanwhile, promised ongoing financial support to help build a stable and thriving Ukraine, in accordance with US law. The terms of the agreement also indicated that the US would hold the largest allowable portion of the fund under American regulations.
Disagreements Over Mineral Rights and Financial Terms
The specific terms of the minerals agreement seem to have intensified the friction between Trump and Zelensky. Initially, the US demanded a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral resources, which Zelensky turned down. It has been reported that this demand was subsequently rescinded.
According to Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian minister and head of the Kyiv School of Economics, Washington initially proposed an arrangement that undermined Ukraine’s sovereignty and would have led to economic collapse. However, he noted that the US has since revised its approach, now offering a more balanced deal based on co-ownership, without direct claims on past aid. This, he argued, could ultimately benefit Ukraine.
Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, mentioning on Tuesday that the US has given $300 billion to $350 billion in aid to Ukraine, suggesting that a minerals agreement might help reclaim these funds. Nonetheless, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US assistance totals $119 billion.
Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?
A key issue for Zelensky has been obtaining clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he affirmed that no such assurances had been secured.
“Including a provision on security guarantees for Ukraine was essential,” Zelensky commented.
In response to queries about potentially walking away if security assurances weren’t included, he answered: “I seek a NATO pathway or an equivalent solution. Without security guarantees, a ceasefire won’t be feasible, and nothing will operate effectively.”
Although there are no explicit security commitments, the agreement contains language expressing US support for Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees to secure enduring peace.
Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not conclude the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus on security assurances and devised a way to incorporate them into the preliminary deal. Trump, on the other hand, minimized the necessity of direct US security guarantees, asserting that these obligations should now fall to Europe. He mentioned that the involvement of American workers in Ukraine would provide “automatic security.”
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to offer the US a concrete motivation to maintain its support for Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for granting mineral access, Ukraine would ensure the “right to keep fighting,” and that the US would continue providing military gear and ammunition “until an agreement with Russia is achieved.”
The US president has also claimed that Russia is open to allowing European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has dismissed this possibility.
What is the Timeline for Signing the Agreement?
Trump initially announced that the agreement would be finalized during Friday’s White House meeting. Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal verified that the final draft of the agreement was ready, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, explained that only a framework agreement was meant to be signed.
However, no agreement was signed. Instead, the meeting escalated into a confrontation between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one point, an angry Trump accused Zelensky of being insufficiently grateful for US assistance and warned that he was “gambling with World War Three.”
“You need to make a deal, or we’re out,” Trump reportedly told Zelensky. “You don’t have the leverage.”
Zelensky countered by asserting that there could be “no compromises” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly afterward—well ahead of schedule—Zelensky left the White House. The White House then announced that the deal had not been finalized, with Trump himself canceling the signing ceremony.
Trump later took to Truth Social, alleging that Zelensky had “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and remarked: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”
At this point, it remains unclear whether or when the agreement will be signed.
Ukraine’s Mineral Wealth
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine’s reserves account for about 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.” This comprises around 19 million metric tons of verified graphite reserves, positioning Ukraine as one of the top five global providers of this essential mineral for electric vehicle battery manufacturing.
Moreover, Ukraine boasts substantial quantities of titanium and lithium. The nation also asserts it has considerable reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals crucial for military applications, wind turbines, and electronic gadgets—although some experts question the precise extent of these reserves.
Further complicating the situation, some of the mineral-abundant regions in Ukraine are currently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko states that mineral deposits valued at approximately $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.
An additional challenge to extracting minerals is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that about 25% of Ukraine’s territory is affected, especially in the war-ravaged eastern areas.
There is also the issue of time. Even if the agreement is finalized, it could take years before the extraction and export of these resources yield tangible economic benefits.
“These resources are not stored in a warehouse ready for dispatch—they need to be developed,” explained Mylovanov. “Should the US invest, it could eventually prove advantageous for everyone involved.”
What is Russia’s Response?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet addressed the reported particulars of the US-Ukraine agreement. Nonetheless, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is willing to “provide” mineral resources to American companies for cooperative ventures, including extraction in Russia’s “new territories”—alluding to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement, asserting that Russia “indisputably possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“Regarding the new territories, we are open to involving foreign partners in developing these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,” he stated.
In the meantime, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated on Tuesday that the circumstances are still evolving: “Whether [Ukraine and the US] will finalize this agreement or something else, remains to be seen. No official announcements have been made on this issue yet.”
